Don't Buy TSLA Leaps -38% Worse

Based on +25% stock price in 1 year:
LEAPS ROI = 27.13%, Margin ROI = 43.7%
LEAPS are 38% less profitable than Margin.
LEAPS Premium = 30.94% of Stock Price.

LEAPS Premium is OK, under 40%
LEAPS do not offer a 40% gain over margin.

LEAPS vs. Margin Comparison for TSLA

Stock Price: $425.5
Option Symbol: TSLA270617C00440000
Option Expiry: 2027-06-17
Days to Expiration: 634 days
Strike Price: $440
Option Premium: $131.65
Live Delta: 0.6617
LEAPS Leverage: 2.14x
LEAPS Breakeven: $571.65 +34.3%
LEAPS Premium: 30.9%
Additional Greeks:
Gamma: 0.0011
Theta: -0.1082
Vega: 2.0524
Rho: 2.6131
Implied Volatility: N/A
Open Interest: 885
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Scenario Comparison

Initial Investment: $13,165.00
Exit Strategy: Sell After 1 Year
LEAPS Gain = Intrinsic Value + Time Value
269 Time Value Days Remaining
Stock MoveNew PriceLEAPS GainLEAPS ROIMargin GainMargin ROI
50%$638.25$14,209.12107.93%$12,242.3092.99%
25%$531.88$3,571.6227.13%$5,753.4243.70%
10%$468.05$-2,810.88-21.35%$1,860.1014.13%
0%$425.5$-5,615.88-42.66%$-735.45-5.59%
-10%$382.95$-5,615.88-42.66%$-3,331.00-25.30%
-25%$319.13$-5,615.88-42.66%$-7,224.33-54.88%
-50%$212.75$-5,615.88-42.66%$-13,713.20-104.16%
Stock Move: 50%
New Price: $638.25
Intrinsic Value: $19825
LEAPS Gain: $14,209.12
LEAPS ROI: 107.93%
Margin Gain: $12,242.30
Margin ROI: 92.99%
Stock Move: 25%
New Price: $531.88
Intrinsic Value: $9187.5
LEAPS Gain: $3,571.62
LEAPS ROI: 27.13%
Margin Gain: $5,753.42
Margin ROI: 43.70%
Stock Move: 10%
New Price: $468.05
Intrinsic Value: $2805
LEAPS Gain: $-2,810.88
LEAPS ROI: -21.35%
Margin Gain: $1,860.10
Margin ROI: 14.13%
Stock Move: 0%
New Price: $425.5
Intrinsic Value: $0
LEAPS Gain: $-5,615.88
LEAPS ROI: -42.66%
Margin Gain: $-735.45
Margin ROI: -5.59%
Stock Move: -10%
New Price: $382.95
Intrinsic Value: $0
LEAPS Gain: $-5,615.88
LEAPS ROI: -42.66%
Margin Gain: $-3,331.00
Margin ROI: -25.30%
Stock Move: -25%
New Price: $319.13
Intrinsic Value: $0
LEAPS Gain: $-5,615.88
LEAPS ROI: -42.66%
Margin Gain: $-7,224.33
Margin ROI: -54.88%
Stock Move: -50%
New Price: $212.75
Intrinsic Value: $0
LEAPS Gain: $-5,615.88
LEAPS ROI: -42.66%
Margin Gain: $-13,713.20
Margin ROI: -104.16%

Equal Capital Projection


Based on +25% stock price in 1 year.
Total Capital Used: $13,165.00
Projected Stock Price (+25%): $531.88
LEAPS Gain: $3,571.62 | ROI: 27.13%
Margin Gain: $5,753.42 | ROI: 43.7%
LEAPS returned 38% fewer gains than Margin.

Based on +50% stock price in 1 year.
Total Capital Used: $13,165.00
Projected Stock Price (+50%): $638.25
LEAPS Gain: $14,209.12 | ROI: 107.93%
Margin Gain: $12,242.30 | ROI: 92.99%
LEAPS returned 16% more gains than Margin.

Based on -25% stock price in 1 year.
Total Capital Used: $13,165.00
Projected Stock Price (-25%): $319.13
LEAPS Gain: $-5,615.88 | ROI: -42.66%
Margin Gain: $-7,224.33 | ROI: -54.88%
LEAPS lost 22% less than Margin.

Based on -50% stock price in 1 year.
Total Capital Used: $13,165.00
Projected Stock Price (-50%): $212.75
LEAPS Gain: $-5,615.88 | ROI: -42.66%
Margin Gain: $-13,713.20 | ROI: -104.16%
LEAPS lost 59% less than Margin.
Power User Breakdown
Based on +25% stock price in 1 year.
Contract Expiration: 2027-06-17 (635 days total)
Days Remaining After 1 Year: 270 days
Option Premium: $131.65
Initial Stock Price: $425.50
Strike Price: $440.00
Projected Stock Price (+25% in 1 Year): $531.88
Price Difference (Projected - Strike): $91.88
Total Capital Used: $13,165.00

LEAPS Gain Components (Sell After 1 Year):
Intrinsic Value: $9,187.50
Time Value Remaining: $7,549.12
Total LEAPS Value: $16,736.62
Initial LEAPS Cost: $13,165.00
Total LEAPS Gain: $3,571.62

Margin Gain Components (Sell After 1 Year):
Shares Bought: 61
Total Stock Cost: $25,955.50
Borrowed Amount: $12,790.50
Interest Paid: $735.45
Total Margin Gain: $5,753.42

LEAPS vs. Margin Comparison:
LEAPS ROI: 27.13%
Margin ROI: 43.70%
LEAPS Gain: $3,571.62
Margin Gain: $5,753.42
LEAPS Gain Advantage: -$2,181.80
LEAPS returned 38% fewer gains than Margin.
LEAPS Risk to Reward Score
Bad Risk to Reward
0/100
Base Performance Score: -25
Bonuses: 12
  • +7 (18-24 Month Expiration)
  • +5 (ATM Strike)
Penalties: 0
Final Risk vs Reward Score: 0/100
Base Performance Score is based on how much better LEAPS perform than margin. It's calculated as (LEAPS ROI - Margin ROI) * 1.5, capped at 80.